Know the odds.Master the market.
Every setup back-tested on years of real price data and refreshed nightly. No guessing: just what actually happened before, and how often.
Tracked instruments
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Top setups right now
The strongest edges in Pinpoint's backtests, re-ranked nightly. Tap one to open it.
EDUCATION
Historical odds, pinpointed.
What a back-tested statistic actually means, how to size confidence in a sample, and additional core resources.
Core concepts
Start here before leaning on any stat elsewhere on the site.
How Pinpoint Works
What every setup measures, where everything lives on the site, and how to ask and read the odds.
Sample Size Matters
Why a stat from 10 cases can mislead and one from hundreds is worth trusting, shown with a coin flip.
Trading vs. Investing
How trading and investing differ, and the accounts and rules for each in the U.S., Canada and Australia.
How to Build a Portfolio
Time horizon, risk and your own situation: how they shape a portfolio, with nearly a century of U.S. market history to explore.
Manage Your Portfolio
Why your mix drifts, when and how to rebalance it, and the costs and taxes to watch, with pictures you can play with.
Glossary
Terms used throughout the Trading and Investing pages.
- Gap fill
- Price trades back through the prior session's closing level after opening away from it.
- Inside day
- A session whose high and low both stay within the prior session's range.
- Drift
- A tendency for price to keep moving in one direction over several sessions following a specific event.
How individuals invest
The main paths available to a retail investor, and the trade-off each one makes between cost and hand-holding.
Self-directed investing
You place every trade yourself through an online brokerage. Lowest cost, full control, and full responsibility for research and timing.
Retail bank investing
An advisor at your everyday bank manages or recommends investments, usually built around mutual funds or managed portfolios. Convenient, but typically higher fees and a limited product shelf.
Full-service brokerage
A dedicated advisor or team manages your account directly, often with access to a wider range of products and more personalized strategy. Higher fees, closer relationship.
What actually moves prices
The larger players and forces operating above the retail level, whose activity shows up in the setups tracked on this site.
Capital markets
The broader system where stocks, bonds, and other instruments are issued and traded — the venue every price on this site is drawn from.
Hedge funds
Pooled, often leveraged capital trading aggressively across strategies and timeframes. Their large, fast-moving positions are a common source of sharp intraday moves.
Pension & institutional funds
Large, slower-moving pools of capital (pensions, endowments, insurers) that rebalance on a schedule rather than react to daily news — a steadier force behind longer trends.
Central banks
Rate decisions and policy guidance from central banks (like the Fed) set the backdrop every other participant trades against — the source of the FOMC-drift setup on the Trading page.
Market makers & algorithmic trading
Firms that provide constant buy/sell quotes and high-frequency trading systems that react to price changes in milliseconds, shaping short-term liquidity and volatility.
Compounding & interest
What long, uninterrupted stretches of growth actually add up to.
The penny that doubles
A single penny that doubles in value every day becomes over $5.3 million by day 30 — not because the daily gain is large, but because compounding is mathematically exponential.
The rule of 70
Divide 70 by an annual rate to estimate years to double: at 7% growth, money doubles in about 10 years. The same math runs in reverse against you — a credit card balance at roughly 18% APR can double in about 4 years if left unpaid.
Inflation
How much purchasing power erodes over time, even in "normal" years.
A dollar, 50 years on
$1 in 1974 has the same buying power as roughly $6.50 today — prices have risen about 3.7% a year on average over that stretch.
Inflation has never gone to zero for long
Over the last 100 years, inflation has been positive in the vast majority of years — sustained deflation has been the exception, not the rule.
Stock market
Notable years and streaks from the S&P 500's history.
The worst years on record
The S&P 500 fell about 37% in 2008, 26% in 1974, and 18% in 2022 (with dividends) — three of its steepest single-year declines.
No losing 20-year stretch
Every rolling 20-year holding period in the index's history has produced a positive nominal return, even when it includes a crash year.
Streaks after a down year
In most years that immediately followed a double-digit decline, the index posted a positive return the following year.
Quotes worth remembering
A few short lines from well-known investors that hold up across market cycles.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
"Know what you own, and know why you own it."
"Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine."
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting."
TRADING
Every setup, one place
Ask in plain English, or open any setup below.
e.g. "How often does a 2% gap up on QQQ fill?" · "Odds SPY hits 700 by Friday?" · "QQQ after a 20% drop, last 15 years"
Featured Setups
Micro
Price Action
High & Low Timing
Daily Pattern
Indicators
Macro
Seasonality
Highs & Drops
Asset Rotation
Rate-Shock Resilience
Asset LibraryAdd any stock, ETF, fund or crypto and use it in the setups.
Adding an asset loads its full daily history (it then updates every night), and Ask the Odds can answer about it right away. Tick one to put it in your setups' Symbol menus: every setup that runs on daily candles (Price Action by the day, week or month, Seasonality, Day of Week, Highs & Drops, Indicators and more). Setups built on 15-minute candles stay with Pinpoint's tracked assets. Anyone can add up to 10 assets a day.
Setup LibraryEvery setup Pinpoint can test, by category.
Micro
Macro
INVESTING
Investing, made simple
Financial advisors charge a yearly fee to build portfolios like these. Now you can build one yourself, like an expert.
Tell us about you
Answer a few questions and the portfolios below change to fit you: how long you'll invest decides the mix of stocks and bonds, how much you have decides how many funds, and your accounts decide where each fund goes.
NEWS
Daily brief
What each market did, the setups it matches, the releases that move markets, and the latest news.
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